Turkey Protests Affect Canadian Real Estate Investors
Turkey Protests Affect Canadian Real Estate Investors

Protest: It is in the news everywhere, people are dissatisfied with how the world is turning out, whether economically or ecologically. It has been splashed across our TV screens (makes for good video), on front pages of newspapers and is regularly made ‘breaking news’ on the radio. An interesting trend is arising from this that we must all pay close attention to.

Recently we’ve seen it occur in Europe and South America; we are hearing of it occurring with more frequency across China (with much less video), Indonesia and other Asian countries. India has been having its experiences with public backlash. Often these protests begin with one issue such as a $.09 increase in bus fare in Brazil, a redevelopment of a park in Istanbul, a crackdown on tax-cheats in southern Europe, a rise in fuel prices in Asia, new transportation infrastructure in India. However, they all quickly morph into larger protests against a litany of concerns.

History Repeats Itself

For the more casual observer and commentator it seems all new, fast and powerful and many are speculating that ‘social media’ is the catalyst in this. However, “rising up” trends are not new, sure social media quickly becomes a communications and rallying tool however it is not the catalyst. A very quick scan of history shows us that it is a repetitive pattern in countries across the globe. Just take a look at some of the more recent mass protest trends of 1968 and 1989 for instance.

In 1968 an economic tremor shook the western world. There was a run on gold, the balance of payments were out of wack, International monetary payments were in question. TIME magazine even ran a front page story on the ‘crisis’, but had to tag it with an apology: “such subjects are often considered too complicated to have wider readership…” This was all hidden by the more public focus on the protests of the Vietnam War’s Tet Offensive, the protests fought for Civil Rights, the giant protests in France, the beginning of ‘The Troubles’ in Northern Ireland.

In 1989: China hit the world stage with protest Tiananmen Square uprising (watched live on TV); Germany was hit with one of the largest demonstrations in German history which was a milestone in the peaceful revolution that led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and German reunification; In South Africa the “Purple Rain” protest which was a the image of protesters standing in front of a purple spray from fire hoses became a defining symbol of civil disobedience worldwide and played a major role in ending apartheid in that country.

In other words, what we are seeing is not new, it is not caused by social media. It is caused by a lethal combination of unemployment, uncertain economic future, perceived government inaction or bullying. In other words, a population that is not being listened to and a population who wants and needs to be listened to.

Success Fuels Success – Watch this video

The ‘success’ of these protests sparks future protests. As one group begins to experience change of policy or stance (or at least attention being focused on an unwanted policy), this success fuels the frustrations felt by other groups, who then begin to believe that the only way to get heard is through massive action such as their own protests.

For instance, this short video shows are the types of protest we are starting to see at foreclosure auctions in the US – and this trend is just beginning.  Confidence or expectation of change becomes strong and the cycle repeats itself. The better the results in one city, word spreads and the movement begins.  In fact, now we are seeing them in Phoenix.

The “New” World Of Change

We have entered a whole new period of dissatisfaction. It ranges from major unemployment riots in Europe, to student uprisings in Quebec, to dramatic anti-everything protests in North America all of which has led to the complete loss of civil discourse and debate on any subject. (great examples are the comment sections of on-line newspapers and the blogosphere). Debate and discussion have left – leaving just escalating vitriol even on the most basic of issues. This type of “yell louder until you are heard” strategy is the spark that has helped ignite many of these protests and demonstrations.

This cycle of protest doesn’t last forever, but it will continue until change is effected. The bad news is, because of the focus on the often vocal minority (in most cases a minority) and the amazing video that can be produced by these protests, we believe that this cycle will be longer than we have experienced in the past.

Bad News is Twofold

The good news is that it will at some point lead to positive change (at least in the more open countries). The bad news is twofold:

1. Governments will be spending additional time focusing on the control and containment of protests (large and small) rather than on economic growth. The economic growth often is the catalyst that slows or ends a protest cycle.

2. With these increasing protests as lead stories, the world will continue to feel and operate in a state of flux. This undermines people’s ability to make positive forward looking decisions in their businesses or their investments. A general state of confusion leads to stagnation of capital, a stagnation of hiring and even the most positive people keeping one foot on the brake as they cautiously move forward.

Why This Is All Important To YOU

As during previous periods of confusion and uncertainty, opportunity sits waiting for those brave enough to take action. Bravery comes from knowledge and the ability to filter the noise pouring into our lives from every device we own to uncover the real signals. Now, more than ever before, it is important to be able to filter out the signals from the noise (for more details on this important subject, check out this additional article).

Sadly Our Forecast is Coming True

Back in 2012, we forecast that 2013 would be a year of protest and change. Little did we expect that forecast to be so ‘understated.’ That being said, we didn’t make this forecast for fun, we made it to assist you in preparing to see opportunity while the majority of people focus on the turmoil. Will all of this protest be a game changer on a national and international level? Quite likely. However, just as important, will you see it as an opportunity to be a game changer for YOU and your financial position?

Strategic investors don’t lack empathy for those engaged in protest and battle, not at all. However, we also keep a close eye on how these important distractions unintentionally open doors of opportunity in our chosen target markets. Will the discourse and disruption affect our local real estate cycle? Most of these protests are influencers on our local markets, not drivers.

Will these major international protest movements have major long-term impact on the world? Perhaps. The real reason to bring this to your attention is quite simple, North America must be prepared for this trend to inevitably arrive on our shores. We have already begun to see localized examples of this (for instance the storming of the capital building in Texas during a controversial vote; Pipeline protests in Canada and the US; and Student protests in Quebec).

A Game Changer In North America

As a game changer, this is a real wild card. This next decade will prove to be a period of civil unrest around the world as economic woes and social fears increase and create an atmosphere where long term economic and political plans can no longer be put in place. We are heading into a time of ‘government by reaction’ rather than long-term planning. This can never lead to good results over a long term.

Strategic investors must pay very close attention to what the mood of the population is on any given economic development. Whether it is a planned transit project, a major mine or pipeline being built, or expansion of an auto-plant, it is critical in this new atmosphere, to wait until the project is not only approved, but is going ahead.

Although much of this civil unrest may have an important message to reveal in many cities across the world, the message will get lost in the rhetoric and lack of civil debate and discussion. Hidden behind all of this discourse will be opportunity. This opportunity will only be realized by those who rise above the discourse and vitriol and focus on the true reality. Logical and pragmatic thought will be increasingly more important over the coming years.

For further reading, here is Time Magazine’s 10 Most Influential Protests. See if you can see any patterns or similarities to today.

It is in the news everywhere, people are dissatisfied with how the world is turning out, whether economically or ecologically. It has been splashed across our TV screens (makes for good video), on front pages of newspapers and is regularly made ‘breaking news’ on the radio. An interesting trend is arising from this that we must all pay close attention to.

Recently we’ve seen it occur in Europe and South America; we are hearing of it occurring with more frequency across China (with much less video), Indonesia and other Asian countries. India has been having its experiences with public backlash. Often these protests begin with one issue such as a $.09 increase in bus fare in Brazil, a redevelopment of a park in Istanbul, a crackdown on tax-cheats in southern Europe, a rise in fuel prices in Asia, new transportation infrastructure in India. However, they all quickly morph into larger protests against a litany of concerns.

History Repeats Itself

For the more casual observer and commentator it seems all new, fast and powerful and many are speculating that ‘social media’ is the catalyst in this. However, “rising up” trends are not new, sure social media quickly becomes a communications and rallying tool however it is not the catalyst. A very quick scan of history shows us that it is a repetitive pattern in countries across the globe. Just take a look at some of the more recent mass protest trends of 1968 and 1989 for instance.

In 1968 an economic tremor shook the western world. There was a run on gold, the balance of payments were out of wack, International monetary payments were in question. TIME magazine even ran a front page story on the ‘crisis’, but had to tag it with an apology: “such subjects are often considered too complicated to have wider readership…” This was all hidden by the more public focus on the protests of the Vietnam War’s Tet Offensive, the protests fought for Civil Rights, the giant protests in France, the beginning of ‘The Troubles’ in Northern Ireland.

In 1989: China hit the world stage with protest Tiananmen Square uprising (watched live on TV); Germany was hit with one of the largest demonstrations in German history which was a milestone in the peaceful revolution that led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and German reunification; In South Africa the “Purple Rain” protest which was a the image of protesters standing in front of a purple spray from fire hoses became a defining symbol of civil disobedience worldwide and played a major role in ending apartheid in that country.

In other words, what we are seeing is not new, it is not caused by social media. It is caused by a lethal combination of unemployment, uncertain economic future, perceived government inaction or bullying. In other words, a population that is not being listened to and a population who wants and needs to be listened to.

Success Fuels Success

The ‘success’ of these protests sparks future protests. As one group begins to experience change of policy or stance (or at least attention being focused on an unwanted policy), this success fuels the frustrations felt by other groups, who then begin to believe that the only way to get heard is through massive action such as their own protests. Confidence or expectation of change becomes strong and the cycle repeats itself.

The “New” World Of Change

We have entered a whole new period of dissatisfaction. It ranges from major unemployment riots in Europe, to student uprisings in Quebec, to dramatic anti-everything protests in North America all of which has led to the complete loss of civil discourse and debate on any subject. (great examples are the comment sections of on-line newspapers and the blogosphere). Debate and discussion have left – leaving just escalating vitriol even on the most basic of issues. This type of “yell louder until you are heard” strategy is the spark that has helped ignite many of these protests and demonstrations.

This cycle of protest doesn’t last forever, but it will continue until change is effected. The bad news is, because of the focus on the often vocal minority (in most cases a minority) and the amazing video that can be produced by these protests, we believe that this cycle will be longer than we have experienced in the past.

The good news is that it will at some point lead to positive change (at least in the more open countries). The bad news is twofold:

1. Governments will be spending additional time focusing on the control and containment of protests (large and small) rather than on economic growth. The economic growth often is the catalyst that slows or ends a protest cycle.

2. With these increasing protests as lead stories, the world will continue to feel and operate in a state of flux. This undermines people’s ability to make positive forward looking decisions in their businesses or their investments. A general state of confusion leads to stagnation of capital, a stagnation of hiring and even the most positive people keeping one foot on the brake as they cautiously move forward.

Why This Is All Important To YOU

As during previous periods of confusion and uncertainty, opportunity sits waiting for those brave enough to take action. Bravery comes from knowledge and the ability to filter the noise pouring into our lives from every device we own to uncover the real signals. Now, more than ever before, it is important to be able to filter out the signals from the noise (for more details on this important subject, check out this additional article).

Back in 2012, we forecast that 2013 would be a year of protest and change. Little did we expect that forecast to be so ‘understated.’ That being said, we didn’t make this forecast for fun, we made it to assist you in preparing to see opportunity while the majority of people focus on the turmoil. Will all of this protest be a game changer on a national and international level? Quite likely. However, just as important, will you see it as an opportunity to be a game changer for YOU and your financial position?

Strategic investors don’t lack empathy for those engaged in protest and battle, not at all. However, we also keep a close eye on how these important distractions unintentionally open doors of opportunity in our chosen target markets. Will the discourse and disruption affect our local real estate cycle? Most of these protests are influencers on our local markets, not drivers.

Will these major international protest movements have major long-term impact on the world? Perhaps. The real reason to bring this to your attention is quite simple, North America must be prepared for this trend to inevitably arrive on our shores. We have already begun to see localized examples of this (for instance the storming of the capital building in Texas during a controversial vote; Pipeline protests in Canada and the US; and Student protests in Quebec).

As a game changer, this is a real wild card. This next decade will prove to be a period of civil unrest around the world as economic woes and social fears increase and create an atmosphere where long term economic and political plans can no longer be put in place. We are heading into a time of ‘government by reaction’ rather than long-term planning. This can never lead to good results over a long term.

Strategic investors must pay very close attention to what the mood of the population is on any given economic development. Whether it is a planned transit project, a major mine or pipeline being built, or expansion of an auto-plant, it is critical in this new atmosphere, to wait until the project is not only approved, but is going ahead.

Although much of this civil unrest may have an important message to reveal in many cities across the world, the message will get lost in the rhetoric and lack of civil debate and discussion. Hidden behind all of this discourse will be opportunity. This opportunity will only be realized by those who rise above the discourse and vitriol and focus on the true reality. Logical and pragmatic thought will be increasingly more important over the coming years.

For further reading, here is Time Magazine’s 10 Most Influential Protests. See if you can see any patterns or similarities to today.

- See more at: http://blog.myreinspace.com/2013/07/the-revolution-and-opportunity-is-upon-us-as-we-enter-the-age-of-protest/#sthash.v9Y9mxTE.dpuf

Turkey Protests Affect Canadian Real Estate Investors was last modified: September 4th, 2013 by Don R. Campbell
 

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